A newly discovered asteroid has caught the attention of scientists worldwide due to its potential to collide with Earth in 2032. Dubbed a “city-killer,” this space rock is large enough to cause serious devastation if it were to make impact.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is between 120 to 270 metres in diameter, and travelling at approximately 19.14 km/s (68,904 km/h). The closest approach (or impact) is estimated to be set for 31 December 2032. Until 2024 YR4’s orbit is tracked over more months, an exact impact site cannot be determined.
Although the risk of colliding with Earth is only 1.4%, it’s roughly twice the size of the 1908 Tunguska meteor, which felled an estimated 80 million trees over an area of 2,150 km2 of forest.
NASA and other space agencies are closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory, calculating the likelihood of an impact as new data becomes available. While the initial figures suggest a small chance of collision, the situation highlights the importance of planetary defence initiatives.
How Scientists Track Dangerous Asteroids
Tracking an asteroid’s path isn’t as simple as pointing a telescope at the sky. Scientists use advanced modelling systems and gravitational calculations to predict future movements, taking into account factors such as the asteroid’s speed, angle, and external influences like other celestial bodies.
NASA’s Near-Earth Object (NEO) program is designed to detect and monitor asteroids that could pose a risk to Earth. The latest discovery serves as a reminder of why this type of surveillance is critical, ensuring that any potential threats are identified well in advance.
Can We Stop an Asteroid?
If an asteroid were on a confirmed collision course with Earth, what could be done? Scientists have proposed several potential solutions, including:
- Kinetic Impactors: Using a spacecraft to smash into the asteroid and nudge it off course.
- Gravity Tractors: A spacecraft could fly alongside the asteroid, using its gravitational pull to slowly alter its trajectory.
- Nuclear Deflection: In extreme cases, a nuclear explosion near the asteroid could change its path (though Hollywood-style asteroid destruction remains a myth).
The recent success of NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its orbit, proved that deflection strategies can work.
Should We Be Worried?
Despite the sensational headlines, experts say there’s no immediate cause for alarm. Earth is hit by small space debris daily, and larger impacts are extremely rare. Scientists continue to refine their calculations, and if action is needed, there is still plenty of time to prepare.
For now, this asteroid is a fascinating case study in planetary defence, reminding us that space agencies around the world are constantly watching the skies – just in case.
Asteroid Extinction Risks vs Other Global Threats
While the idea of an asteroid impact wiping out humanity is dramatic, the actual probability is incredibly low compared to other existential risks. According to the Future of Life Institute, asteroid impacts are among the least likely global catastrophes, with major impacts occurring once every few million years. In contrast, threats like nuclear war, artificial intelligence risks, pandemics, and climate change pose a far greater and more immediate danger to human civilization.
For example, the Chicxulub asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was estimated to be 10-15 km wide, far larger than any known near-Earth object currently being tracked. Scientists are confident that no asteroid of extinction-level size is on a collision course with Earth in the foreseeable future. In contrast, nuclear conflict or advanced AI misalignment could have catastrophic effects within decades, not millennia.
